[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":419},["ShallowReactive",2],{"content-body-can-startup-cities-defend-themselves-ask-dubai":3,"transcript-can-startup-cities-defend-themselves-ask-dubai":418},{"body":4,"extras":417},[5,16,24,32,41,49,57,65,73,81,89,97,105,113,121,129,137,145,153,161,169,177,185,193,201,209,217,225,233,241,249,257,265,273,281,289,297,305,313,321,329,337,345,353,361,369,377,385,393,401,409],{"_key":6,"_type":7,"children":8,"markDefs":14,"style":15},"34990bd738f4","block",[9],{"_key":10,"_type":11,"marks":12,"text":13},"4c4b70695e35","span",[],"It’s been a month since the Gulf war erupted. Triggered by the assassination of Iran’s leader in a U.S.-Israeli strike, the conflict has since spilled across the region. The UAE has been hit hardest: by 25 March 2026, hundreds of Iranian missiles and over 1,800 drones had been fired at it, killing at least 9 and injuring 166 — with even symbols of Dubai’s global image, like the famous sail-shaped Burj Al Arab hotel, caught in the crossfire.",[],"normal",{"_key":17,"_type":7,"children":18,"markDefs":23,"style":15},"34a3aa01a705",[19],{"_key":20,"_type":11,"marks":21,"text":22},"90a14a146810",[],"A certain genre of commentary emerged almost instantly: Dubai as a mirage finally collapsing. There has been a lot of barely concealed glee online from those long scornful of the city, portraying the situation as pure panic — cryptobros and botox-filled Instagram models fighting for the last seats on flights out. The media have largely joined the chorus. Dubai, apparently, is “finished”, facing “an existential threat”, “scrambling to save its reputation”, or even “exploding in a puff of intercepted missile smoke”. “Could this be the end of Dubai?” asks the urbanist guru Richard Florida.",[],{"_key":25,"_type":7,"children":26,"markDefs":31,"style":15},"0159c826a6b8",[27],{"_key":28,"_type":11,"marks":29,"text":30},"7e3c8e4f4975",[],"For decades, Dubai has positioned itself as the Switzerland of the Middle East — a neutral, business-first oasis in a region that, for as long as anyone alive can remember, has been anything but stable. Is that image about to fall apart?",[],{"_key":33,"_type":7,"children":34,"markDefs":39,"style":40},"4393fa3842b6",[35],{"_key":36,"_type":11,"marks":37,"text":38},"e13396eabd20",[],"Who Will Defend a City of Nomads?",[],"h2",{"_key":42,"_type":7,"children":43,"markDefs":48,"style":15},"78b9821f3ab8",[44],{"_key":45,"_type":11,"marks":46,"text":47},"1288002a2bbf",[],"Dubai’s demographic structure seems, at first glance, to confirm the worst fears. Around 90% of the city’s population is foreign-born — easily the highest proportion of any major city in the world. Many — our family included — moved here relatively recently. We’ve been in Dubai for just two years and, like many others, were not exactly expecting to be woken up by air raid alerts in the middle of the night.",[],{"_key":50,"_type":7,"children":51,"markDefs":56,"style":15},"088a99c2d7b1",[52],{"_key":53,"_type":11,"marks":54,"text":55},"4551d74ff56a",[],"Free Cities advocates hear this argument all the time: a small jurisdiction that minds its own business and caters to global nomads would not withstand a hostile attack. People are not “rooted,” so they will pack up and leave at the first sign of danger. Sceptics see this as the Achilles’ heel of the entire model: how can a city-state defend itself against a nation-state with a full-scale, tax-funded military machine?",[],{"_key":58,"_type":7,"children":59,"markDefs":64,"style":15},"df867ca958e1",[60],{"_key":61,"_type":11,"marks":62,"text":63},"38d8cf9fe54d",[],"The question, in fact, is twofold. First, can a startup city physically defend its people and infrastructure? Second, can the economic model that sustains it withstand prolonged uncertainty? Dubai, at least so far, appears to be succeeding at both — and that matters far beyond the Gulf.",[],{"_key":66,"_type":7,"children":67,"markDefs":72,"style":40},"aa80139e1739",[68],{"_key":69,"_type":11,"marks":70,"text":71},"fc27d9fc457b",[],"David vs Goliath: Small Doesn’t Mean Weak",[],{"_key":74,"_type":7,"children":75,"markDefs":80,"style":15},"8b7674904623",[76],{"_key":77,"_type":11,"marks":78,"text":79},"2eabd6ba7f01",[],"On the military front, the UAE’s air defence systems have intercepted the overwhelming majority of incoming missiles and drones. After an initial shock, the city has returned back to normal with surprising speed. The occasional distant “boom” — usually signalling yet another successful interception — has become part of the background noise. Life goes on.",[],{"_key":82,"_type":7,"children":83,"markDefs":88,"style":15},"fbaeaa6c8a98",[84],{"_key":85,"_type":11,"marks":86,"text":87},"1c4899b4e430",[],"The biggest misconception is that defence capabilities depend on the size of the war machine. “Smaller” does not mean “weaker” — it never did. As Johan Norberg reminds us in Peak Human, smaller, freedom-oriented societies have often proven remarkably resilient against much larger adversaries. The historical record is full of “David versus Goliath” cases — not romantic exceptions, but recurring patterns.",[],{"_key":90,"_type":7,"children":91,"markDefs":96,"style":15},"f1f6acc04e03",[92],{"_key":93,"_type":11,"marks":94,"text":95},"5ff59f2ec629",[],"Athens defeated Persia through naval superiority, alliances, and the clever use of geography. Venice — a city-state — survived nearly a thousand years among powerful empires by combining naval strength, commercial leverage, and diplomatic pragmatism. The Dutch Republic, a tiny commercial country surrounded by powerful rivals, became Europe’s financial centre in the 17th century, attracting capital even during wartime.",[],{"_key":98,"_type":7,"children":99,"markDefs":104,"style":15},"1c248650510d",[100],{"_key":101,"_type":11,"marks":102,"text":103},"ee219dba4e11",[],"In the Battle of Scheveningen (1653), the Dutch fleet managed to break the blockade imposed by the English navy, then the most powerful maritime force in the world. Source: Wikimedia Commons.",[],{"_key":106,"_type":7,"children":107,"markDefs":112,"style":15},"49a57af6d283",[108],{"_key":109,"_type":11,"marks":110,"text":111},"3ad0f428ffdb",[],"Historically, many trading cities relied on hybrid or private defence mechanisms — Venice’s merchant fleets doubling as naval forces, the Dutch Republic’s commercially funded navy, the Hanseatic League pooling defence resources. A modern equivalent could include joint security arrangements between SEZs, contracted defence services, or privately financed cyber capabilities. The UAE itself offers a contemporary example: Dubai does not defend itself alone, but as part of a federal system in which Abu Dhabi plays a central role — effectively pooling resources for collective security.",[],{"_key":114,"_type":7,"children":115,"markDefs":120,"style":40},"48846dda648c",[116],{"_key":117,"_type":11,"marks":118,"text":119},"9966a38f2ee9",[],"The Age of Asymmetry",[],{"_key":122,"_type":7,"children":123,"markDefs":128,"style":15},"df946e627bef",[124],{"_key":125,"_type":11,"marks":126,"text":127},"f1be554dc614",[],"Security comes from institutions and incentives, not size. If anything, the 21st century only strengthens this argument. Military conflict is increasingly about innovation rather than brute force. Drones, cyber defence, AI-enabled surveillance — technological asymmetry allows smaller actors to punch above their weight. Ukraine’s resilience against Russia is a telling example.",[],{"_key":130,"_type":7,"children":131,"markDefs":136,"style":15},"e5833d0bca98",[132],{"_key":133,"_type":11,"marks":134,"text":135},"0cd8c23cd6fa",[],"Startup cities can go further still — they can be built from scratch for resilience: decentralised energy grids, backup communication systems, protected data infrastructure. Financial centres already operate like this. Many exchanges maintain mirrored systems across multiple locations, ensuring continuity even if one hub goes offline. A well-designed Free City could do the same.",[],{"_key":138,"_type":7,"children":139,"markDefs":144,"style":40},"18efbe882d93",[140],{"_key":141,"_type":11,"marks":142,"text":143},"6dbecc2c2d40",[],"Commercial Deterrence — And Its Limits",[],{"_key":146,"_type":7,"children":147,"markDefs":152,"style":15},"69aa51f52cb8",[148],{"_key":149,"_type":11,"marks":150,"text":151},"f131626b6887",[],"Another strategy is to become too valuable to disrupt. Venice mastered this, and so did the Dutch Republic — even powerful empires often preferred trading with them to conquering them.",[],{"_key":154,"_type":7,"children":155,"markDefs":160,"style":15},"d269598557f4",[156],{"_key":157,"_type":11,"marks":158,"text":159},"a4aa7a9d1bfa",[],"The same logic still applies. Dubai sits at the intersection of global energy markets, aviation networks, and financial flows. Disrupting it would damage the global economy, creating strong incentives for external actors to protect it. This is sometimes called commercial deterrence.",[],{"_key":162,"_type":7,"children":163,"markDefs":168,"style":15},"f9412447334a",[164],{"_key":165,"_type":11,"marks":166,"text":167},"e5c52473bd4c",[],"You might say — and rightly — that this also creates incentives to attack, as we are seeing now. Iran is effectively trying to blackmail the world through the threat of energy disruption. But this shifts the nature of the threat from conquest to harassment.",[],{"_key":170,"_type":7,"children":171,"markDefs":176,"style":15},"2135a2feca72",[172],{"_key":173,"_type":11,"marks":174,"text":175},"1a7ba50d387e",[],"And harassment, so far, has not been particularly effective. Despite small populations and low taxes, the UAE has intercepted the overwhelming majority of incoming projectiles. Wealth accumulated during decades of peace — and it has been remarkably peaceful for roughly 50 years, especially compared to many neighbours — has been invested in highly sophisticated air defence systems.",[],{"_key":178,"_type":7,"children":179,"markDefs":184,"style":40},"5b39cd299545",[180],{"_key":181,"_type":11,"marks":182,"text":183},"4944ae671c4b",[],"The Covid Stress Test — and the Price of Panic",[],{"_key":186,"_type":7,"children":187,"markDefs":192,"style":15},"df173b55ddc0",[188],{"_key":189,"_type":11,"marks":190,"text":191},"4c218d3ac7ee",[],"The second — and ultimately more important — question is whether the startup city model itself can withstand the crisis. We do not yet have a definitive answer for Dubai, as the conflict is ongoing. But we do have a recent precedent that, just a few years ago, was framed as an existential threat: the Covid pandemic.",[],{"_key":194,"_type":7,"children":195,"markDefs":200,"style":15},"0e04f81a9f50",[196],{"_key":197,"_type":11,"marks":198,"text":199},"25da2ec54e5c",[],"Small, agile, business-oriented jurisdictions handled Covid noticeably better than many large ones. Places like Singapore and Monaco, as well as Dubai, have fewer administrative layers, tighter coordination between government and business, and greater sensitivity to economic signals — all of which becomes crucial in times of uncertainty.",[],{"_key":202,"_type":7,"children":203,"markDefs":208,"style":15},"f9bf517a0bff",[204],{"_key":205,"_type":11,"marks":206,"text":207},"a08bb5950b92",[],"Throughout 2020, Dubai kept hosting large-scale events — including New Year’s Eve celebrations — even as most cities around the world shut down. Source: Wikimedia Commons.",[],{"_key":210,"_type":7,"children":211,"markDefs":216,"style":15},"43f215ff54df",[212],{"_key":213,"_type":11,"marks":214,"text":215},"f9f577fc8d0d",[],"Smaller systems could implement targeted and experimental policies, while large states often defaulted to blanket national measures. Above all, they simply couldn’t afford prolonged shutdowns and risk alienating mobile capital and talent. During Covid, they faced stronger incentives to experiment, adjust, and reopen quickly.",[],{"_key":218,"_type":7,"children":219,"markDefs":224,"style":15},"03989d7eec11",[220],{"_key":221,"_type":11,"marks":222,"text":223},"e8e0e3c718d3",[],"Rapid testing, early adoption of digital health systems, and a swift reopening allowed Dubai to return to normal while much of Europe remained locked down. By mid-2020, offices were reopening, kids were back in school, malls were buzzing, and airports were filling with tourists again — all while in London you could still be stopped by a guard in a park for walking too close to your friend (it happened to me more than once).",[],{"_key":226,"_type":7,"children":227,"markDefs":232,"style":15},"f356f17d8278",[228],{"_key":229,"_type":11,"marks":230,"text":231},"6881d277bcbb",[],"Dubai, in part, owes its recent economic rise to Covid — both to its own agility and to the disastrous policies chosen by many Western countries.",[],{"_key":234,"_type":7,"children":235,"markDefs":240,"style":40},"250692b7f114",[236],{"_key":237,"_type":11,"marks":238,"text":239},"6a905f76338f",[],"Promotions, Not Prohibitions",[],{"_key":242,"_type":7,"children":243,"markDefs":248,"style":15},"df823205e091",[244],{"_key":245,"_type":11,"marks":246,"text":247},"cf7adee28fd1",[],"If survival means keeping the economy running, the biggest threat is often internal: panic, populism, and policy drift. We’ve seen too many governments resort to populism and abandon reasonable policies in times of trouble.",[],{"_key":250,"_type":7,"children":251,"markDefs":256,"style":15},"698ce2469c75",[252],{"_key":253,"_type":11,"marks":254,"text":255},"73db77aaf52e",[],"Thankfully, so far Dubai’s governing philosophy — “What’s good for the merchants is good for Dubai” — remains intact. As of March 2026, airports continue to operate, even if at reduced capacity. While tourists face disruptions, hotels are offering discounted “staycations” to residents. Attractions are rolling out promotions: the world’s largest water park for free, anyone? A half-price stay on The Palm?",[],{"_key":258,"_type":7,"children":259,"markDefs":264,"style":15},"d8d2cd4df1ff",[260],{"_key":261,"_type":11,"marks":262,"text":263},"61f010ecf465",[],"After about a week of war, loud night-time air raid alarms were replaced with gentler notifications. Expats temporarily leaving were promised leniency on tax residency rules to encourage their return. Schools were allowed to decide individually whether to reopen. Hotels are offering free stay for stranded travellers — not just as a humanitarian gesture, but as rational crisis management aimed at preventing panic from becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.",[],{"_key":266,"_type":7,"children":267,"markDefs":272,"style":40},"32c93e1c8fb0",[268],{"_key":269,"_type":11,"marks":270,"text":271},"8e850aac2bb7",[],"Openness, Not Oil, Built Dubai as We Know It",[],{"_key":274,"_type":7,"children":275,"markDefs":280,"style":15},"2b6ffdb4c607",[276],{"_key":277,"_type":11,"marks":278,"text":279},"f04d37f62a80",[],"In peaceful times, this model has worked spectacularly. Dubai’s population grew from just under one million in 2000 to around four million today, roughly quadrupling since the turn of the century. And despite persistent myths, this growth was not fuelled by oil wealth. Oil now accounts for less than 1% of its GDP.",[],{"_key":282,"_type":7,"children":283,"markDefs":288,"style":15},"621dfacb3281",[284],{"_key":285,"_type":11,"marks":286,"text":287},"1a975a354cf1",[],"This chart from Harvard’s Metroverse highlights that Dubai’s economy relies on trade, services, and construction — not oil. Source: Metroverse.",[],{"_key":290,"_type":7,"children":291,"markDefs":296,"style":15},"a88d9b230f3f",[292],{"_key":293,"_type":11,"marks":294,"text":295},"4c0fa977ce25",[],"The real backbone of Dubai’s economy is its service sector — retail, finance, hospitality — industries that benefit greatly from deregulation. If anything, the next phase will require doubling down — extending this hands-off approach to boost new industries, from the recently approved gambling hub to large-scale AI data centres.",[],{"_key":298,"_type":7,"children":299,"markDefs":304,"style":15},"9ae7812c077d",[300],{"_key":301,"_type":11,"marks":302,"text":303},"50fce9a019a4",[],"Unsurprisingly, the model has begun to spread beyond the UAE. Riyadh, Doha, and other regional hubs are developing their own versions, competing for the same mobile capital and talent. Richard Florida warns that this makes such cities interchangeable: “If one falters, another steps up to take its place.”",[],{"_key":306,"_type":7,"children":307,"markDefs":312,"style":15},"62d88fd09f6c",[308],{"_key":309,"_type":11,"marks":310,"text":311},"9fdea0ce6685",[],"But competition is not a bug — it is the feature, the model’s built-in discipline mechanism. It is precisely what forces jurisdictions to maintain — and ceaselessly improve — the conditions that attract people and investment in the first place.",[],{"_key":314,"_type":7,"children":315,"markDefs":320,"style":40},"b5d855deb095",[316],{"_key":317,"_type":11,"marks":318,"text":319},"f5495df11841",[],"When a Hub Becomes a Home",[],{"_key":322,"_type":7,"children":323,"markDefs":328,"style":15},"135454c5badc",[324],{"_key":325,"_type":11,"marks":326,"text":327},"c49b1990a885",[],"Another misconception is that cities like Dubai are inherently transient. This was once a fair critique. In 2009, Jim Krane described Dubai as “not a genuine city,” but rather an “unfinished collection of buildings” with the atmosphere of an airport or hotel. That description no longer holds.",[],{"_key":330,"_type":7,"children":331,"markDefs":336,"style":15},"873ee56e629b",[332],{"_key":333,"_type":11,"marks":334,"text":335},"82dbb7a3e4eb",[],"The introduction of long-term residency options — such as golden visas — has begun to anchor high-skilled migrants. Labour reforms have gradually improved conditions for lower-income workers. The result is a more rooted population. My daughter’s nursery includes third-generation Dubaians — grandchildren of those who moved here decades ago in pursuit of opportunity. That is not the profile of a purely transient city.",[],{"_key":338,"_type":7,"children":339,"markDefs":344,"style":15},"8f66512b2f3d",[340],{"_key":341,"_type":11,"marks":342,"text":343},"e53716be086e",[],"It is also worth remembering that many residents come not from wealthy Western countries, but from regions where instability is far more severe. At a recent gathering, a Pakistani friend remarked, almost casually, “We’ve seen war back home.” The comment was met with quiet nods from Lebanese, Syrians, and Ukrainians. For many, Dubai — even under intermittent threat — remains a safer and more predictable alternative.",[],{"_key":346,"_type":7,"children":347,"markDefs":352,"style":40},"0112da100825",[348],{"_key":349,"_type":11,"marks":350,"text":351},"402d2304e673",[],"Iran vs Dubai: A Tale of Two Systems",[],{"_key":354,"_type":7,"children":355,"markDefs":360,"style":15},"69381002e19e",[356],{"_key":357,"_type":11,"marks":358,"text":359},"7576f8e52b53",[],"Why is Iran doing it, after all? On the surface, the attacks look like retaliation for hosting U.S. military bases. But at a deeper level, the conflict highlights something else: how radically different the UAE and Iran’s models are. Dubai is everything that Iran is not — cosmopolitan, peaceful, tolerant, business-friendly, and open to the world. Naturally, it is not lost on Tehran that there is another way for a Muslim, oil-rich country to organise itself — and one that appears to work rather well.",[],{"_key":362,"_type":7,"children":363,"markDefs":368,"style":15},"927846c862e6",[364],{"_key":365,"_type":11,"marks":366,"text":367},"f4138d6c1c78",[],"Al Bastakiya, Dubai’s historic district and now a major tourist site, takes its name from the Iranian town of Bastak and was developed by Persian merchants who formed the majority of the area’s population a century ago. Photo by Walid Ahmad.",[],{"_key":370,"_type":7,"children":371,"markDefs":376,"style":15},"8e236abeaef2",[372],{"_key":373,"_type":11,"marks":374,"text":375},"aa043db659ce",[],"For over a century, Iran has been a major source of capital and talent for Dubai. When Persian ports raised taxes in the early 20th century, Dubai moved in the opposite direction, establishing itself as a free port and attracting hundreds of Persian merchants. Since then, repeated policy missteps — tariffs in the 1970s, the Islamic Revolution, and ongoing restrictions — have pushed wave after wave of Iranians across the Gulf. Some 40–60% of the Emirati population may have Persian roots. Each time, people voted with their feet for a more open system — at considerable cost to the Iranian economy. Of course, the ayatollahs are not happy, to put it mildly.",[],{"_key":378,"_type":7,"children":379,"markDefs":384,"style":15},"581c6f5f8280",[380],{"_key":381,"_type":11,"marks":382,"text":383},"3be1e8ec84e4",[],"And this is a lesson for all aspiring Free Cities. The world, sadly, is not becoming freer or more peaceful. To win the competition for talent and capital, your place does not have to be 100% safe — after all, there are fewer and fewer places like that. It simply has to offer more safety than alternatives.",[],{"_key":386,"_type":7,"children":387,"markDefs":392,"style":40},"3fd7897884aa",[388],{"_key":389,"_type":11,"marks":390,"text":391},"f95ef27b2976",[],"Lesson for Free Cities: Don’t Fix What Isn’t Broken",[],{"_key":394,"_type":7,"children":395,"markDefs":400,"style":15},"9b4c77417fdc",[396],{"_key":397,"_type":11,"marks":398,"text":399},"260b456a1c39",[],"Dubai’s experience under attack is a real-time stress test of the Free City model. The early results suggest that small, autonomous, business-oriented jurisdictions can hold their ground — by combining innovation, institutional design, and a certain refusal to panic. But the greatest test is not whether they can intercept missiles, but whether they can resist the far more familiar impulse to undermine themselves. In times of crisis, governments are tempted to overreact, overregulate, and abandon the very policies that made them successful in the first place.",[],{"_key":402,"_type":7,"children":403,"markDefs":408,"style":15},"b92a71ce8f0e",[404],{"_key":405,"_type":11,"marks":406,"text":407},"c6edde7f783b",[],"For startup cities, the challenge is simple and brutal: don’t break your own model.",[],{"_key":410,"_type":7,"children":411,"markDefs":416,"style":15},"80f0bf105008",[412],{"_key":413,"_type":11,"marks":414,"text":415},"74a36f1a49fb",[],"Cover image by Denys Gromov",[],{},null,1788062471145]